BREAKING: The Rockets should make an offer for Nikola Jokić that the Nuggets can’t refuse

The Rockets have the right combination of high-upside young players and draft picks to pique the Nuggets’ interest.

Apr 11, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Unless the Denver Nuggets go on an unexpectedly deep playoff run, focus will soon turn to Nikola Jokić’s long-term future in the Mile High City.

The Nuggets parted ways with both head coach Mike Malone and general manager Calvin Booth in the final week of the regular season, hoping to light a spark under the team heading into the playoffs. However, a tough first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers awaits. If the Nuggets survive that, they’ll likely draw the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Semifinals.

Two years after winning the 2022-23 NBA championship, the Nuggets appear to be moving backwards. They lost key rotation players such as Bruce Brown Jr., Jeff Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over the past two offseasons, and outside of Christian Braun, their younger players have yet to emerge as viable replacements.

Jokić has given no indication that he’s starting to develop a wandering eye, and even if he is, he’s under guaranteed contract for two more years before a $62.8 million player option in 2027-28. He’s eligible for a three-year, $212 million extension this offseason, and “the assumption around the league” is that he’ll sign it, according to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon and Ramona Shelburne. “But if there’s even a slight pause in his decision-making, it will be devastating for the Nuggets,” they added.

That’s where the Houston Rockets could swoop in with an offer for Jokić that the Nuggets can’t refuse.

From ‘Baby Jokić’ to actual Jokić?

The Rockets have quietly assembled one of the NBA’s most promising young cores over the last few years. Alperen Șengün earned his first All-Star nod this season while averaging 19.1 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game, and 2023 No. 4 overall pick Amen Thompson might not be far behind him. Those two should be cornerstones for the Rockets moving forward.

Unless the Rockets can convince the Nuggets to part ways with Jokić, this is.

Șengün is one of the top young big men in the league, but Jokić is on an entirely different tier than him. The three-time MVP just became the first center in NBA history to average a triple-double across an entire season. He’s widely considered to be the best player in the league today, and he just turned 30 in February.

The Rockets are already on the ascent, having gone from a 22-60 season two years ago to a 50-32 campaign this year. But if they fall short in the playoffs, they may be tempted to make an all-in move. They won’t find a better one than Jokić, and they might have the right combination of young players and draft picks to at least make the Nuggets think twice before laughing the Rockets off the phone.

Șengün would be the centerpiece of any Rockets offer, but they have plenty of sweeteners to include. Even if Thompson is off-limits, they could dangle a handful of recent top-five picks (Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard), 2022 No. 17 overall pick Tari Eason and/or 2023 No. 20 overall pick Cam Whitmore. The Rockets also have plenty of draft capital to offer, as they control all but one of their first-round picks over the next seven years and have three fully unprotected picks from the self-immolating Phoenix Suns between now and 2029.

The Rockets could feasibly offer Șengün, Smith, Sheppard and all three Phoenix first-rounders as the starting point of a Jokić trade, and they’d still have plenty of room to negotiate from there. They also have the financial flexibility to accommodate the Nuggets, who project to be far more restricted on the trade market.

The Nuggets are already projected to be over the $195.9 million first apron next season. If they stay above that line, they wouldn’t be allowed to take back more salary in a trade than they send out. Luckily, the Rockets are projected to be below the first apron, and they could give themselves even more wiggle room by declining their $44.9 million team option on Fred VanVleet and re-signing him to a multi-year deal at a lower annual rate. As long as the Rockets stay below the first apron, they’d be allowed to take back 125 percent of the salary they sent out in any trade, plus $250,000.

Jokić is currently in the midst of a five-year, $276.1 million supermax extension and will earn $55.2 million next year, which projects to be nearly 36.6 percent of the salary cap. Meanwhile, Șengün is about to start the five-year, $185 million extension that he signed last October and is set to earn $33.9 million next season, which projects to be only 22.0 percent of the salary cap.

If the Rockets included Sheppard ($10.6 million) and Smith ($12.4 million) along with Șengün in their offer for Jokić, the Nuggets would have to include slightly more salary. The Rockets could serve as a dumping ground for the remaining two years and $15.6 million on Zeke Nnaji’s contract, which should only further incentivize the Nuggets to swing a deal.

Getting the Nuggets to part ways with Jokić will likely be a tough sell, but they’d be getting far more for him than the Dallas Mavericks did for Luka Dončić, for one. They could trot out a new starting five of Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Șengün with Sheppard and Smith coming off the bench, and they’d have the Suns’ picks to further replenish their pool of young talent in the next few years. If the Nuggets wanted the Rockets to throw in Eason or Whitmore as well, that shouldn’t be a deal-breaker.

Depth helped fuel the Rockets’ rise up the Western Conference standings this year, but they’d still have plenty of talent after a trade like this, particularly if they’re able to keep Eason. They could always look to flip Green elsewhere and break him up into a few smaller contracts, too. In the meantime, they’d have a potential starting five of FVV, Green, Dillon Brooks, Thompson and Jokić with Eason and Whitmore off the bench.

The Nuggets likely won’t even entertain Jokić trade discussions unless he declines to sign an extension this offseason. If he does, the Rockets could have the right combination of high-upside young players and draft picks to pique the Nuggets’ interest.